Alan Hájek: A Plea for the Improbable
|Wanneer:||ma 31-05-2010 20:00 - 21:30|
Lecture organized by the Faculty of Philosophy and Studium Generale
Augustin Cournot is famous for the principle that an event of small probability singled out in advance will not happen. Yet Dick Cheney is famous for his “1% doctrine”: “if there’s a 1% chance that Pakistani scientists are helping Al Qaeda build or develop a nuclear weapon, we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response.” According to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the probability of a severe reactor accident in one year is between roughly 1 in a million and 1 in a 100,000.