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Heymans Colloquium: Prof. Z.Dienes, Using Bayes to get the most out of null results

Wanneer:di 29-04-2014 13:00 - 14:00
Waar:Room M.0161, Munting Building, Grote Kruisstraat 2/1, Groningen

LECTURER Professor Zoltan Dienes (University of Sussex, United Kingdom)

TITLE Using Bayes to get the most out of null results

DATE & TIME Tuesday, 29 April 2013, 13.00 – 14.00 hrs

LOCATION Room M.0161, Munting Building, Grote Kruisstraat 2/1, Groningen

ABSTRACT User's of orthodox statistics, including psychologists, have typically not interpreted null results in a principled way, resulting in mistaken conclusions and choices of research direction based on non-significant findings. A non-significant result does not distinguish no evidence for an effect from evidence for no effect, radically different states of affairs. The distinction falls out naturally from a Bayesian analysis, in a consistent way that cannot be accomplished with orthodox statistics, even when statistical power is taken into account. I will show how simple free online software for calculating Bayes Factors can be used to determine what a null result is actually telling us. The tools I introduce in this talk, and now gradually appearing in the literature, should enable publishing null results on an equal footing with significant results. I hope to make people aware of a genuine practical hole in current practice in any domain of psychology and offer a genuine prac! tical so lution. The talk will be useful to anyone who uses inferential statistics. No statistical background is assumed other than knowledge of how to do a t-test.