Global construction carbon footprint set to double by 2050, study warns

As the world marks UN World Cities Day (31 October), which calls for more sustainable urban development, a new international study warns that the construction sector’s carbon footprint could double by 2050, putting global climate goals at risk. Prajal Pradhan, affiliated with the Wubbo Ockels School for Energy and Climate, is one of the lead authors and highlights the urgent need for change in how we build our cities.

The new international study provides the most comprehensive global analysis of construction emissions to date, tracking 49 countries and regions and 163 sectors between 1995 and 2022.

In 2022, over 55% of the construction industry’s carbon emissions stemmed from cementitious materials, bricks, metals, while glass, plastics, chemicals, and bio-based materials contributed 6%, and the remaining 37% arose from transport, services, machinery, and on-site activities.

The study shows that the construction sector now drives one-third of global CO₂ emissions, up from around 20% in 1995. If current trends continue, the sector can exceed the 2°C per annum budget earliest by 2040.

Projections are alarming

Based on the past data, different future emission scenarios were projected. Under the business-as-usual scenario, the construction carbon footprint alone will exceed the per-annum carbon budget for the 1.5°C and 2°C goals in the next two decades, not considering other industries.

"Between 2023 and 2050, cumulative construction-related emissions are expected to reach 440 gigatons of CO₂—enough to consume the entire remaining global carbon budget for 1.5°C", Prajal Pradhan explains.

Regional Differences 

The study shows a significant shift in emissions from developed to developing regions. In 1995, high-income countries produced half of construction emissions. By 2022, emissions in these economies had largely stabilized, while growth in developing regions was increasingly driven by reliance on carbon-intensive materials such as steel and cement. At the same time, the use of bio-based materials such as timber has declined, underscoring a missed opportunity for low-carbon alternatives.

An increasing number of people are living in urban areas such as cities, says Pradhan. "By 2050, the global population is expected to reach between 9 and 10 billion. Most newly built urban settlements will be located in low-income or developing countries. If current construction practices continue, greenhouse gas emissions from these developments could consume the entire remaining carbon budget needed to limit global warming."

Call for a Material Revolution

The authors call for a global 'material revolution' — a transition toward low-carbon, circular, and bio-based construction materials such as engineered timber, bamboo, and recycled composites. While high-income countries should focus on innovation, retrofitting, and regulation, developing countries need financial and technological support to leapfrog to sustainable construction practices.

Pradhan emphasizes the need to rely more on biobased materials. "In the Netherlands as well, older houses were often built with materials that had a lower carbon footprint and were sourced locally. Around the world, countries have long traditions of using such biobased resources. Our future cities should build on this foundation. This approach offers two key benefits: it reduces reliance on fossil-based materials and helps store carbon within the materials themselves."

Pradhan also calls for fair pricing. "Biobased materials appear more expensive mainly because of supply chain factors", he explains. "We need to scale up their use and train our workforce accordingly. Fossil-based materials also appear to be cheaper because the cost of carbon emissions is not factored into the calculation. If it were, they would not be." He also rejects concerns about fire safety and earthquake resistance, noting that it all depends on how we use the materials.

Global challenge

This study aligns with the theme of the United Nations’ World Cities Day (31 October), which promotes global cooperation to make cities more inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable. As the world continues to urbanize rapidly, reducing the environmental impact of the construction sector will be essential for creating sustainable and climate-resilient cities.

Pradhan: "I talk about the ABCD of the new building revolution. A stands for affordability. B is for beauty, meaning our buildings should reflect local cultures. C represents circularity, which is already a feature of many traditional buildings. And D stands for digitalization. Our buildings need to be digital and modular", he concludes.