Advancing the analytical tools for understanding complexity in behavioral science
Our thoughts and feelings are influenced by countless biological, psychological, and social factors that constantly interact with each other. Because these processes are so complex, it is often difficult to understand, for example, why someone’s mood suddenly shifts from good to bad, and vice versa.In my thesis, I use ideas from the theory of complex systems to gain more insight into psychological processes. I focus on three themes.First, I study how the stability of psychological states can be illustrated with the metaphor of a ball in a landscape: for a healthy person, the ball lies in a deep, healthy valley, while for a vulnerable person, the ball may also be in a healthy valley, but that valley is shallower and therefore less stable. With new methods and computer programs, I show how we can calculate such “landscapes,” both with simulations and with real data.Second, I look at sudden changes during treatments. Sometimes we can find signals that predict such a change, such as increasing fluctuations in mood. I discuss what types of changes there are and how therapists can better understand what is happening.Third, I study the nonlinear dynamics of psychological processes, in other words, the fact that small causes can sometimes have large consequences. For this, I develop new analysis methods.Finally, I reflect on the opportunities and challenges of this research and emphasize the importance of collaboration between different disciplines.