One million euros for Jutta Bolt’s research into better prediction of Africa’s explosive population growth

Despite an increase in life expectancy, birth rates in Africa are still enormous. Why does this trend differ from the rest of the world? Dr. Jutta Bolt, economic historian at the Faculty of Economics and Business will study old missionary archives to find out the influence of factors such as drought, starvation, epidemics and colonialism. To do this, B olt has been awarded a Wallenberg Academy Fellowship by the Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, worth € 1000,000.

The Fellowship is a prestigious grant, comparable to a Vidi-Vici grant of the Dutch NWO. The Swedish foundation aims to provide promising research talent with an opportunity to freely develop their ideas over a five-year period. Bolt will work partly at Lund University in Sweden on her study into historical trends in the growth of Africa’s population.

Trends before the 1950s

“According to some estimates, Africa’s population will quadruple within 50-85 years”, says Jutta Bolt. “But will it? These predictions are only based on current trends; we have limited knowledge of population trends before the 1950s.” Using information from missionary archives (1800-1950), Bolt will now identify factors that have had a historical influence on Africa’s population.

Many children the norm?

And why does Africa differ from other regions? Bolt: “When life expectancy increased in Asia and Latin America, this change was rapidly followed by a reduction in the number of births. Population growth thus slowed. Instead, in Africa, the population is exploding. Mortality has declined, but there are still very many children being born. Why is this trend different in Africa? Has having many children always been the norm for this continent? Or could it be a reaction to colonialism or a lack of social security, for example?”

Missionary reports

To make more exact predictions of Africa’s future population patterns, it is necessary to have better knowledge of what they were like historically. “Therefore I will go through old missionary archives to find out how Africa’s population has been influenced by drought, starvation, epidemics and colonialism. These missionary reports often include information about the numbers of births and deaths and the crises the population has been exposed to, which will provide valuable knowledge about the inhabitants’ history.”

More information

• Contact: Jutta Bolt
• Profile page Jutta Bolt at Wallenberg Academy website
• News item of Wallenberg Academy on new fellows

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