Effects of short-term events on mortality in Europe
Short-term events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and extreme temperatures, have important impacts on overall population health. Understanding their effects on mortality is essential for monitoring population health and for preparing for the consequences of climate change in ageing societies. This thesis explores how short-term events affect mortality levels, mortality trends, and regional mortality inequalities across Europe in the 21st century using a comprehensive demographic approach, detailed monthly and weekly data, and a novel methodological framework.
This thesis found that seasonal excess mortality and the COVID-19 pandemic substantially reduced life expectancy in Europe during the early 21st century, albeit with important differences between countries. In particular, winter excess mortality significantly drives overall excess mortality, persistently over time. No impact of short-term mortality fluctuations on mortality and life expectancy trends was found. Both the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany and seasonal mortality in Italy widened spatial mortality inequalities, with particularly strong mortality effects in the eastern German federal states and in the southern and insular regions of Italy. In Italy, cardiorespiratory mortality was the main contributor to seasonal excess mortality, and its seasonal patterns remained stable over time.
These findings emphasise the persistent public health burden of seasonal mortality, especially during winter months, and the need for interventions targeted at the most vulnerable regions to mortality shocks (e.g., southern and eastern Europe, southern Italy and eastern Germany) and older adults to reduce the mortality burden, improve overall population health, and decrease inequalities in life expectancy.