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The double life of probability

A philosophical study of chance and credence
PhD ceremony:Mr P. (Patryk) Dziurosz-Serafinowicz
When:January 12, 2017
Supervisors:prof. dr. J.W. (Jan-Willem) Romeijn, prof. dr. A.J.M. (Jeanne) Peijnenburg
Where:Academy building RUG

This thesis is a philosophical study of two concepts of probability, to wit, the subjective one called credence and the physical one called chance, and the relation between them. In this study, the thesis introduces and utilizes various principles or conditions relating chances to credences, prior (or present) chances to posterior (or later) chances, and prior credences to posterior credences. The primary aim is to show that focusing and elaborating on these principles gives us a fruitful way of theorizing about chance and credence. The secondary aim is to show how we can combine these principles with some well-established argumentative strategies to provide insight into both notions of probability.