Climate change and the phenology mismatch theory

From the early 1980s onwards we measure the development of tundra plants in relation to the timing of snow melt. Over the years, the effect of global warming has been considerable and the recession of snow from the tundra today is almost two weeks earlier than it was 30 years ago. This means that food for the herbivore geese becomes available earlier than it used to be. Barnacle geese have responded by earlier breeding, although the advancement of breeding dates is less than that of snow melt. We explore what the consequences of these shifts in phenology are for the fitness of the geese by estimating their annual survival and reproductive success.