Having accurate and high-quality mortality forecasts has become increasingly important due to the general increase in life expectancy and the social consequences of this. The aim of this dissertation was to evaluate mortality forecasting in the context of non-linear past mortality trends. In this way, it contributes to the debate on the degree of subjectivity in mortality forecasting, but also to the evaluation, validation, and further improvement of the mortality forecasts of Statistics Netherlands (CBS).
When making mortality forecasts, different approaches en assumptions are used, in which additional, often subjective, information is included to deal with non-linear mortality trends. A careful examination of past trends, and a careful assessment of the pros and cons of including additional information, is therefore important. The mortality forecast in the context of non-linear past mortality trends may be improved by making explicit adjustments for the distorting effects of smoking on mortality trends and the use of mortality developments in other countries. The specific choices that are explicitly stated in a method proved more important than the choice of the forecasting approach.
The PhD research by Stoeldraijer is part of the research theme Population, Mortality and Health and the VIDI project 'Smoking, alcohol and obesity - ingredients for improved and robust mortality projections' by Fanny Janssen. Watch this video for an impression of Janssen’s VIDI-research.
Tialda Haartsen is a researcher of rural depopulation. In the bog of village shrinkage, beautiful flowers occasionally blossom unexpectedly.
Healthy food displayed at eye height, electronic signs showing smiley faces, red carpets to ward off bikes. We are all being ‘nudged’ on a regular basis, encouraged to behave in a particular way. Koen Bandsma is researching how this works on the street...
On Thursday 13 June, Prof. D. Strijker was appointed Officer of the Order of Orange-Nassau. The Mayor of Aa en Hunze T. Baas presented the award in the Blue Room of the Duisenberg Building.