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Groningen economists predict Rio medal table: 8 Olympic golds for the Netherlands

11 July 2016
The Olympic gold medal (Peking, 2008). Source: Nationale Beeldbank

The Dutch Olympic team will win 8 gold medals in Rio de Janeiro. At the Olympic Games this summer, the Dutch team will win 24 medals: 8 gold, 9 silver, and 7 bronze. That is the prediction of University of Groningen economists Fabian ten Kate, Gerard Kuper and Elmer Sterken, based on a scientific model. Ten Kate, Kuper and Sterken publish their prediction today in the economics journal Economisch Statistische Berichten.

The economists expect the Netherlands to finish 12th in the medal table. The battle for the top position in the middle table will be intense. Ten Kate, Kuper and Sterken predict that the United States will just pip China to the post.

Previous results and home advantage

Kuper and Sterken have been predicting the Olympic Games medal table since 2002. The Groningen model is based on previous Olympic results, home advantage and the world championship results of the relevant events. The differences between the predictions and the actual medal table can be very large. To date, the predictions for the London Games have been the best.

Predictions compared

Gold Silver Bronze Position medal table
Athens 2004 prediction 4 6 11 23rd
result 4 9 9 18th
Beijing 2008 prediction 4 7 9 18th
result 7 5 4 12th
London 2012 prediction 8 8 7 11th
result 6 6 8 13th

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Last modified:22 January 2018 10.01 a.m.
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