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Research Urban and Regional Studies Institute PRC

Projecting mortality in NL and Europe through the separate projection of smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality

Principal researcher

Fanny Janssen


Leo van Wissen (PRC, NIDI), Anton Kunst, and Luc Bonneux (UvA)


In this project a new research methodology for the projection of mortality is being formulated which consists of the separate projection of smoking-related mortality and non-smoking-related mortality, thereby taking into account the trends in the opposite sex and other countries, using the approach by Li&Lee (2005).

The methodology has first been proposed within (i) a project coordinated by the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) and funded by Eurostat on the “Decomposition of life expectancy changes by cause of death” (see previous projects) and (ii) within the sub report “Time and Future” as part of the 2010 Dutch Public Health Status and Forecasts Report by the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) (see project description).

Fanny Janssen and Leo van Wissen are currently involved in a project with Statistics Netherlands (Wim Leunis, Coen van Duin) to come up with a new official mortality projection, using parts of the abovementioned methodology. Main investigator: Lenny Stoeldraijer (Statistics Netherlands).


  • Janssen, F., L.J.G. van Wissen and A.E. Kunst (2013) Including the smoking epidemic in internationally coherent mortality projections. Demography 50(4): 1341-1362.
  • Janssen, F., van Wissen, L.J.G. and A.E. Kunst (2013) Life expectancy is increasing - but by how much exactly? Population Europe - Pop Digest 22-07-2013.
  • Janssen, F. & A. Kunst (2010), De toekomstige levensverwachting. In: A.H.P. Luijben & G.J. Kommer (eds.), Tijd en toekomst; deelrapport van de VTV 2010 Van gezond naar beter. RIVM-rapport 270061008, Houten: Bohn Stafleu Van Loghum, p. 13-20.
Last modified:01 November 2019 10.18 a.m.