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OnderzoekUrban and Regional Studies InstitutePopulation Research Centre

The sensitivity of including additional information in mortality forecasting

Principal researcher

Lenny Stoeldraijer (Statistics Netherlands)

Type of research

PhD research

Supervisors

Leo van Wissen and Fanny Janssen

Collaboration

Coen van Duin (Statistics Netherlands)

Summary

Because of the increased importance of mortality forecasting, more and more approaches to project future mortality are developed, leading to different outcomes. An important consideration in making a mortality projection is whether to take into account additional information, such as information on smoking and information on trends in other countries.

This research seeks to analyze and examine the sensitivity of projected future life expectancy due to different mortality projection methods and due to different ways of including additional information in mortality projections, e.g. the projection of smoking-attributable mortality and the use of coherent forecasting. In the end, the sensitivity due to different explicit assumptions (e.g. historical period, jump-off rates) in a forecasting method which includes additional information will be assessed. In doing so, the most suitable methodology to project future mortality in the Netherlands will be identified which will be applied as part of the official population forecast by Statistics Netherlands.

Publications

Last modified:25 March 2014 3.48 p.m.