Skip to ContentSkip to Navigation
ResearchUrban and Regional Studies InstitutePopulation Research Centre

The sensitivity of including additional information in mortality forecasting

Principal researcher

Lenny Stoeldraijer (Statistics Netherlands)

Type of research

PhD research

Supervisors

Leo van Wissen and Fanny Janssen

Collaboration

Coen van Duin (Statistics Netherlands)

Summary

Because of the increased importance of mortality forecasting, more and more approaches to project future mortality are developed, leading to different outcomes. An important consideration in making a mortality projection is whether to take into account additional information, such as information on smoking and information on trends in other countries.

This research seeks to analyze and examine the sensitivity of projected future life expectancy due to different mortality projection methods and due to different ways of including additional information in mortality projections, e.g. the projection of smoking-attributable mortality and the use of coherent forecasting. In the end, the sensitivity due to different explicit assumptions (e.g. historical period, jump-off rates) in a forecasting method which includes additional information will be assessed. In doing so, the most suitable methodology to project future mortality in the Netherlands will be identified which will be applied as part of the official population forecast by Statistics Netherlands.

Publications

  • Stoeldraijer, L., C. van Duin, L. van Wissen, F. Janssen (2013) Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: The case of the Netherlands. Demographic Research 29(13): 323-354. http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol29/13/
  • Stoeldraijer, L., C. van Duin, F. Janssen (2013), Bevolkingsprognose 2012-2060: Model en veronderstellingen betreffende de sterfte. [Population forecast 2012-2060: Model and assumptions on mortality] Bevolkingstrends 2013(3), pp. 1-27. 
  • Stoeldraijer, L., C. van Duin, F. Janssen (2012), Bevolkingsprognose 2012-2060: Model en veronderstellingen betreffende de sterfte [Population forecast 2012-2060: Model and assumptions on mortality]. Den Haag/Heerlen: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek. 32 pages. 
  • In progress: Future smoking-attributable mortality (Lenny Stoeldraijer, Luc Bonneux, Coen van Duin, Leo van Wissen, Fanny Janssen)
Last modified:18 February 2019 4.46 p.m.