According to a model designed by student of economics Fabian ten Kate and economists Gerard Kuper and Elmer Sterken, the Netherlands is set to win 14 medals at the Winter Olympics in Sochi; 6 gold, 5 silver and 3 bronze.
Ten Kate, Kuper and Sterken will publish their predictions in the economics journal Economisch Statistische Berichten on 24 January 2014.
The Netherlands will finish in 7th place in the medal table. There will be a tough battle for the top position, but Russia is expected to win from the United States, Germany and Austria.
The model predictions are based on previous Olympic results, the home advantage and the World Cup results for the relevant sports. Kuper and Sterken have been predicting the medal count at Olympic events since 2002.
However, the discrepancies between predictions and actual results can be considerable. In retrospect, the predictions for the Vancouver Games were the best so far:
2002 Salt Lake City
Prediction: 2 gold, 2 silver, 3 bronze (7), 12th in the table
Result: 3 gold, 5 silver, 0 bronze (8), 9th in the table
Prediction: 2 gold, 3 silver, 2 bronze (7), 12th in the table
Result: 3 gold, 2 silver, 4 bronze (9), 10th in the table
Prediction: 4 gold, 4 silver, 3 bronze, 10th in the table
Result: 4 gold, 1 silver, 3 bronze, 10th in the table
One of the researchers, prof. Sterken, will present the prediction and the method to high school students on January 24th. This lecture organized by the Pre-university academy of Groningen, will be attended by some ninety pupils.
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