Innovative projections

A significant part of the research on demographic monitoring and forecasting consists of innovative applications, namely applications to entirely new situations.

In the early 1990s, the PRC prepared population scenarios for the European Union, in cooperation with EUROSTAT. They were the very first and were used by the Commission in Brussels to assess the impact of ageing on public finance (pensions).

Since 1992, the PRC has cooperated with the State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia) in Moscow. A first project, funded by the Netherlands National Research Council (NWO) focused on institutional support and capacity building in the Department of Demography of the Institute of Statistics of Goskomstat. Two projects have been carried out in cooperation with Goskomstat.

• The first is the development of a system for the monitoring and forecasting of the population of Russia. The research involves the development of a data bank at Goskomstat and new methodology for the monitoring and forecasting the population of Russia, divided into about 175 areas level - roghly 90 regions and 2 settlement types per region. The algorithms developed as part of the research are being translated into user-friendly software by 1C, a well-known software company in Moscow. The new system is being implemented at Goskomstat to serve in the production of population statistics and demographic scenarios. The research, the software development and a new computer network at Goskomstat are funded by the European Union as part of the TACIS (Technical Assistance to CIS countries) programme.
• A second cooperation with Goskomstat is the Analysis of the 1994 Micro Census of Russia, a 5 percent sample (see felow).

Innovative application of multistate models for monitoring and forecasting demographic change includes PhD research on the interaction between demographic change and education in Mexico by Sergio Medina, and on the regional population dynamics in Indonesia by Salut Muhidin.

• Sergio Medina (2000) analysed demographic changes in the various provinces of Mexico, prepared multiregional projections and assessed effects in the school population. He found that, as a result of past declines in fertility, the primary school population would begin to decline in the coming years, although considerable regional differences exist.
• Salut Muhidin (2002) developed a new methodology for the monitoring and forecasting of the population of Indonesia. He distinguishes 27 regions. The method is multiregional so as to properly account for the effects of migration. An additional feature of the new methodology is that effective use is made of the data collected in the various demographic and related surveys organized over the past years. For instance, fertility and mortality levels are estimated from survey data.