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Corona research

Article in Nature Climate Change: Impacts of COVID-19 and fiscal stimuli on global emissions and the Paris Agreement | Yuli Shan and Klaus Hubacek
Posted on:23 December 2020

The global economy is facing a serious recession due to COVID-19, with implications for CO2 emissions. Here, using a global adaptive multiregional input–output model and scenarios of lockdown and fiscal counter measures, we show that global emissions from economic sectors will decrease by 3.9 to 5.6% in 5 years (2020 to 2024) compared with a no-pandemic baseline scenario (business as usual for economic growth and carbon intensity decline). Global economic interdependency via supply chains means that blocking one country’s economic activities causes the emissions of other countries to decrease even without lockdown policies. Supply-chain effects contributed 90.1% of emissions decline from power production in 2020 but only 13.6% of transport sector reductions. Simulations of follow-up fiscal stimuli in 41 major countries increase global 5-yr emissions by −6.6 to 23.2 Gt (−4.7 to 16.4%), depending on the strength and structure of incentives. Therefore, smart policy is needed to turn pandemic-related emission declines into firm climate action.

Pandemic and forthcoming stimulus funds could bring climate targets in sight – or not
Posted on:22 December 2020

The lockdowns that resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic have reduced greenhouse gas emissions. However, in the recovery phase, emissions could rise to levels above those projected before the pandemic. It all depends on how the stimulus money that governments inject into their economies is spent.

Slow easing of lockdowns may be better for global economy
Posted on:03 June 2020

A cautious approach to easing lockdown restrictions that reduces the risk of later lockdowns may be better for the global supply chain in the long run, according to a new modelling study by a global team with partners from Europe, the UK, the US and China.

The paper, published today in Nature Human Behaviour , is the first peer-reviewed study to comprehensively assess potential global supply chain effects of Covid-19 lockdowns, modelling the impact of lockdowns on 140 countries, including countries not directly affected by Covid-19.

Article in Nature Climate Change: Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement | Yuli Shan
Posted on:03 June 2020

Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement. Government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic have drastically altered patterns of energy demand around the world. Many international borders were closed and populations were confined to their homes, which reduced transport and changed consumption patterns. Here we compile government policies and activity data to estimate the decrease in CO2 emissions during forced confinements. Daily global CO2 emissions decreased by –17% (–11 to –25% for ±1σ) by early April 2020 compared with the mean 2019 levels, just under half from changes in surface transport. At their peak, emissions in individual countries decreased by –26% on average. The impact on 2020 annual emissions depends on the duration of the confinement, with a low estimate of –4% (–2 to –7%) if prepandemic conditions return by mid-June, and a high estimate of –7% (–3 to –13%) if some restrictions remain worldwide until the end of 2020. Government actions and economic incentives postcrisis will likely influence the global CO2 emissions path for decades.

Climate change, the coronavirus, and the economy | Klaus Hubacek
Posted on:25 May 2020

Climate change caused by carbon emissions is the leading global environmental problem today. Mitigating carbon emissions and adapting to climate change requires the integration of different types of approaches to support the transformation of society towards sustainability.