The Time of Emergence of Arctic Warming, Wetting and Sea Ice Melting

Scientists from the University of Groningen and KNMI, including ESRIG members Marlen Kolbe, Richard Bintanja and Nomikos Skyllas, recently published an article in the journal Nature Scientific Reports on the time of emergence of a new climate state in the Arctic.

In the rapidly warming and wetting Arctic, the time of emergence (ToE) of a new climate state occurs when trends of climate indicators are large enough to surpass the strong natural climate fluctuations in the Arctic. This article shows that most regions of the Arctic are close to a new climate state (for temperature and sea ice), with wide-ranging and possibly irreversible consequences for vulnerable Arctic ecosystems and human activities.