Colloquium Coputer Science - Lukas Bader, TH University Köhln

Title: Market Volume Estimation US Market

Abstract:

This talk presents a novel approach to forecasting tool volumes in regional US markets for the metalworking industry. Due to incomplete and noisy internal sales data and gaps in external economic data, traditional time series models fall short. To overcome these challenges, we have conducted an extensive market analysis based on external data to segment the American market. Using dimensionality reduction and clustering techniques, we identify regional concentrations of relevant industries, which serves as a crucial first step for generating potential end-customer leads in America. These leads are then enriched with relevant features. We will then discuss how to prepare for a prototype- based modeling framework, with the goal of forecasting sales volume for these identified leads. The talk will also cover the open questions and pitfalls associated with this approach. This framework will be trained on a data foundation of our existing industrial end-customers in Europe. Finally, the talk will outline how we plan to use the company internal sales data to make prototype-based forecasts for the American leads. The overall method is designed to be interpretable and explainable, allowing for clear validation by subject matter experts.