Dissertation: POSTPONEMENT OF CHILDBEARING AND LOW FERTILITY IN EUROPE
Author: Tomáลก Sobotka
Europeans have been entering parenthood at ever-higher ages. Women in Ireland, Italy, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland bear their first child above age 28 on average, i.e. by about 4 years later than their mothers’ generation. At the same time, period fertility rates in many European societies declined to low and very low levels, most recently in Central and Eastern Europe. In 2001, all the post-communist countries of Europe as well as the Southern European countries (except Portugal) had total fertility rate (TFR) below 1.40, fifteen European societies had TFR of 1.30 or lower, and the mean European-wide TFR was 1.39. These two developments—postponement of childbearing and the decline of period fertility to very low levels—are closely connected.
The main idea explored here is that very low period fertility rates in Europe are the outcomes of the effects of fertility postponement (labelled as ‘tempo effects’). The influence of these tempo distortions on period fertility will stop once the age when women have children stabilises. Consequently, the usual period fertility indicators are problematic and potentially misleading; this study devotes considerable space to the methodological discussion of fertility indicators and possible alternatives to the conventional total fertility rate. The other main issues of this study—an analysis and projection of childlessness in Europe and the United States and an analysis and discussion of precipitous fertility changes in Central and Eastern Europe—are also linked to the effects of fertility postponement.
The work on this study has been undertaken as part of the project “Towards a dynamic scenariomodel of economic determinants of European population dynamics”the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO), project number A 510-03-901. The goal of this project is to improve the understanding of determinants of demographic processes (fertility, mortality, internal and external migration, and the interactions between them) in order to formulate theoretically and empirically informed scenarios of future demographic development in European countries and regions. While this study diverges considerably from an emphasis on the macro-level analysis of economic determinants of fertility change, it does address the most prominent features of current European fertility trends—low and very low period fertility rates, intensive postponement of first births, and the dramatic transformation of fertility patterns in Central and Eastern Europe. Whenever possible, it gives a detailed country-specific comparison of the analysed trends. In doing so, it tries to utilise a broad array of available data, often coming from diverse sources. Additionally, it provides insights concerning possible future developments and scenarios, summarised in the concluding Chapter 9
Outline of the study and summary of major findings
Introductory Chapter 1 provides an overview of the thesis. Chapter 2 reviews theories, explanations, and findings on the determinants of postponed childbearing, in particular with regard to first births. It pays attention to the effects of educational attainment, the conflict between employment and parenthood, the influence of unemployment and various forms of uncertainty, the changing character of intimacy and partnership relations, and the influence of contraceptive technology, especially the pill. It highlights the importance of life-course perspective, which aptly connects various dimensions of the otherwise fragmented evidence on delayed parenthood. The norms related to childbearing have changed considerably; the importance of family relationships and parenthood in people’s lives has declined and the norms on the proper timing of childbearing have become less rigid. At the same time, the perceived preconditions for parenthood have gained in importance: finishing education, participating in the paid labour, having a stable relationship, and accumulating enough resources are the four main ‘preconditions’ for parenthood to which most men and women adhere. In addition, the standards of material security prior to parenthood have increased considerably, while partnerships have become more fragile, making the decision to have a child more difficult. For many individuals, postponing childbearing also constitutes well-accepted solution to their competing preferences and the perceived incompatibility of their current lifestyle with parenthood.
Chapter 3 constitutes an empirical counterpart to Chapter 2. It provides a comparative analysis of the progression of fertility postponement in European countries starting from the early 1970s, as well as occasional comparison with the United States and Japan. The general mapping of cross-country trends and differentials in first birth timing paves the way for the analysis of several related issues, such as the extent of convergence in terms of cross-country differences as well as within-country variation in the age patterns of first births. The persistence of the ongoing first birth postponement is unique when compared with the other two major shifts in fertility tempo in the 20th century—fertility delay during the economic depression of the 1930s and fertility advancement during the 1950s and the 1960s. Spanish and Italian women currently hold a problematic record of being the oldest first-time mothers in Europe and arguably in the world. The age-heterogeneity in first birth timing has increased in all societies and implies widening stratification between different social groups. Fertility tables indicate that some ‘recuperation’ in first birth intensity among women at higher reproductive ages has been in progress nearly everywhere. This trend is only recent in Central and Eastern Europe and so far has not taken place in Poland. The differences between countries are considerable in this respect; the evidence from Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, and Sweden shows that first birth intensity may remain high after age 30. Finally, a simulation of change in first birth patterns exposes the deficiencies of the frequently used period total fertility rates and permits the sketching of a simplified model of fertility postponement and recovery.
A methodological discussion on the measurement of period fertility is another important topic addressed in this thesis. Using detailed data and estimates of period and cohort fertility in four European countries—the Czech Republic, Italy, the Netherlands, and Sweden—Chapter 4 explores in detail the issue of tempo effects in period fertility. It provides a brief overview of period fertility indicators, major distortions in these indicators, and selected methodological issues. It reviews the advantages and disadvantages of ‘alternative’ indicators of period fertility, namely the indexes of total fertility based on age and parity-specific birth probabilities and recently proposed period fertility adjustments. Much of the empirical analysis focuses on the comparison of period fertility and the corresponding indicators of completed cohort fertility, especially in the periods of intensive fertility postponement, when the differences between them tend to be largest. This analysis has indicated that none of the available alternatives closely examined here constitutes a ‘perfect’ method of choice to measure fertility quantum.
General indicators of fertility disregard birth order. Childbearing and fertility decision-making, however, are sequential processes, where different factors may influence the decision to have a first child than the decision to have a second or third one. This study concentrates in particular on first birth rates and the related issue of childlessness. Using period and cohort fertility data for 16 European countries and the United States, Chapter 5 briefly reviews the issue of childlessness and provides an analysis and projection of final childlessness among women born between 1940 and 1975. Two basic projection scenarios of lifetime childlessness are presented for women born after 1955. These scenarios envision a pronounced increase of childlessness in Central and Eastern Europe, where it has been uncommon until recently. Although cohort childlessness is set to increase in almost all the countries analysed, it is unlikely to exceed the very high level of 30%, reached in many societies among women born at the beginning of the 20th century. According to the upper-bound scenario, 23 to 28 percent of women born in 1975 will remain childless in the countries and regions with the highest levels of projected final childlessness—Austria, England and Wales, Finland, West Germany, Italy, and Poland; the lower-bound scenario puts this proportion at 22-23 percent. The most surprising is the projected slight decline of final childlessness in the United States, which strongly contrasts with European trends.
Although the data available for most European countries do not enable a similarly detailed analysis of higher-parity fertility, it is important to keep track of the overall levels and trends in period fertility. Using the adjusted TFR proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney (1998), Chapter 6 discusses the issue tempo distortions in the total fertility rates in European countries and regions, focusing especially on the period between 1995 and 2000. The presented results show that none of the European countries analysed would have reached the extremely low period fertility level (TFR below 1.3) in the absence of fertility postponement. I interpret this finding as an indication that lowest-low fertility is a temporary phenomenon, driven by the intensive fertility postponement. However, period and cohort fertility in virtually all European societies will remain considerably below the replacement level, and pronounced differences in fertility quantum between European regions will prevail. Austria, Germany, European countries of the former Soviet Union, Bulgaria, Romania, and most of Southern Europe form a heterogeneous group of countries with low fertility quantum, which may face serious consequences in terms of population ageing and the potential magnitude of population decline.
Most dramatic changes in period fertility have recently taken place in the post-communist countries of Europe. Within a decade following the breakdown of the state-socialist systems, Central and Eastern Europe has transformed from being the ‘high-fertility’ region in Europe, into the region with lowest period fertility in the world, at least when measured by the commonly used total fertility rates. Chapter 7 analyses this decline in detail and challenges a widely shared view that the plummeting fertility rates in this region constituted a relatively uniform ‘shock’ reaction to the ongoing social and economic transformation there, identifying considerable regional differences in the path towards very low period fertility levels. In Central Europe and, to a lesser extent, in the Baltic countries, the decline in the period total fertility has been dominantly driven by the massive postponement of childbearing, whereas the reduction in fertility quantum has been less prominent. In contrast, there was hardly any postponement until the late 1990s in the European countries of the former Soviet Union, where the fertility decline was driven mostly by the reduction in fertility quantum. In these societies as well as in Bulgaria and Romania, the progression rates to second birth declined considerably, implying a rapidly growing proportion of one-child families. An analysis of data on fertility, reproductive behaviour, family formation, and birth control further revealed rapidly growing differences across Central and Eastern Europe.
Despite the increasing diversity, most countries in Central and Eastern Europe have experienced a rapid shift toward the model of late timing of parenthood, higher childlessness, lower fertility quantum, and increased heterogeneity in family size and fertility timing, typical of other regions in Europe. Chapter 8 examines the most prominent factors shaping this ongoing transformation of fertility patterns. It attributed the distinctive fertility regime prevailing in this region until the late 1980s—such as the early timing of childbearing, the low levels of childlessness, the high reliance on abortions, and the relatively uniform fertility pathways—to the specific institutional and economic setting of the communist societies. The discussion of the recent fertility shifts focuses mostly on social and economic changes that are likely to prevail in the long-term. The roots of the massive fertility changes in Central and Eastern Europe are generally similar to those in other European regions. In particular, massive education expansion, the opening of new opportunities for self-realisation, the rapid spread of the contraceptive pill, the culture of consumption, and the changing character of the family, as well as the intensifying conflict between employment career and parenthood, constitute the main factors shaping fertility decisions of people in the post-communist countries of Europe.
The concluding Chapter 9 summarises the major findings, highlights their relevance for formulating medium-term projections of period fertility in European countries, and speculates on future fertility trends in Europe and their wider implications.
