Period fertility rates in many parts of Europe have reached extremely low levels, raising concerns about their future consequences in terms of the potential magnitude of population decline, massive population ageing, and the ability of governments to finance social security systems. This study argues that extremely low levels of the usual indicators of period fertility are closely connected with the ongoing postponement of parenthood towards higher ages, recorded in all European societies. Once the process of fertility postponement stops, period fertility rates are likely to increase above the extremely low threshold, although almost all European societies will retain low fertility rates which are not sufficient for generational replacement.
The study addresses the most pertinent features of contemporary fertility trends in European countries, with occasional comparisons with other advanced societies, especially Japan and the United States. It utilises a broad array of data to map the progression of fertility postponement in Europe and its influence on trends in period fertility rates. Another two topics thoroughly addressed in this study—the precipitous fertility changes in Central and Eastern Europe during the 1990s and the analysis of final childlessness—are also closely linked with the effects of the ongoing deferment of parenthood. Methodological discussion in this study has concentrated on the measurement of period fertility, in particular on the possibilities of how to take into account tempo-effects, i.e., distortions which fertility postponement or advancement causes in the period fertility indicators commonly used.
Tomáš Sobotka (1974) works as a researcher at the Vienna Institute of Demography. He received an MA in Demography from Charles University in Prague, and, on the basis of this book, a PhD in Demography from the University of Groningen, the Netherlands.
