A new paper by Robert Inklaar and Ryan Marapin, "Accounting for productivity convergence: sectors and structural change," offers fresh insights into the forces behind global labour productivity convergence from 1990 to 2018.

The study introduces a novel method to disentangle the sectoral contributions to productivity convergence across 66 countries, leveraging newly developed purchasing power parities (PPPs) for sectoral value added. Contrary to the long-held focus on manufacturing as the engine of development, the authors find that agriculture has played the dominant role.

Two main factors explain this: rapid productivity gains within agriculture itself, and large-scale reallocation of labour away from agriculture—especially in developing economies. Meanwhile, productivity convergence in non-agricultural sectors remains limited. The paper also shows a declining impact of resource misallocation over time.

This work challenges traditional development narratives and underscores the importance of agricultural transformation in global productivity trends. The paper is now available for readers interested in growth, structural change, and international productivity comparisons.

Access the paper: This research is publicly available via the GGDC Research Memorandum Series and the GGDC Dataverse Repository. DOI: 10.34894/777ZW3