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Groningen Growth and Development Centre

Faculty of Economics and Business
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Peak trade?

Date:16 September 2016
Global trade peaked with the 2008 financial crisis
Global trade peaked with the 2008 financial crisis

Marcel Timmer gave a keynote lecture on this topic at a conference organised by the Bank of Lithuania, which also included speakers such as Richard Baldwin, Fabio Ghironi, and Laura Alfaro. The presented research, jointly by Timmer, Bart Los, Gaaitzen de Vries and Robert Stehrer, provides a new empirical tool for analysing global trade, namely the trade elasticity of final demand, which includes all trade induced by a change in final demand. They find that this elasticity has remained stagnant since 2011 and that international production fragmentation no longer stimulates growth in international trade; see Timmer's presentation here.

Tags: Conference, WIOD