T. (Thomas) Feliciani

Electoral support for right-wing parties and local ethnic heterogeneity: modelling the macro-micro link

This project addresses the increasing success of radical right-wing parties that the Netherlands as well as many other western countries witnessed in the last decades. Existing theories suggest a causal link between the ethnic composition of a population and the rise of anti-immigrant attitudes and support for the radical right. Empirical research based on these theories often shows inconclusive results, suggesting a need for further theoretical development. We aim at better understanding the conditions under which residential ethnic heterogeneity fosters extreme attitudes toward ethnic minorities. We adopt a generative approach, focusing on the link between micro-level processes of opinion formation and macro-level patterns in right-wing attitudes. Existing agent-based computational models of opinion formation processes are extended to derive the implications of competing sets of assumptions. Available data on local-level voting outcomes of national elections in the Netherlands will be used to test and further elaborate model predictions.