Publication

Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models. An overview of techniques and approaches

Müller-Hansen, F., Schlüter, M., Maes, M., Donges, J. F., Kolb, J. J., Thonicke, K. & Heitzig, J., 8-Nov-2017, In : Earth System Dynamics. 8, p. 977-1007 31 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

  • Finn Müller-Hansen
  • Maja Schlüter
  • Michael Maes
  • Jonathan F. Donges
  • Jakob J. Kolb
  • Kirsten Thonicke
  • Jobst Heitzig
Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals’ behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers’ often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions.
After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals’ preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)977-1007
Number of pages31
JournalEarth System Dynamics
Volume8
Publication statusPublished - 8-Nov-2017

    Keywords

  • ATTITUDE-CHANGE, MOMENT-CLOSURE, SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS, AGENT-BASED MODELS, LAND-USE MODELS, CLIMATE-CHANGE, METHODOLOGICAL INDIVIDUALISM, CONTINUOUS OPINIONS, LOCAL CONVERGENCE, FRUGAL HEURISTICS

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