The Probabilities of Conditionals Revisited

Douven, I. & Verbrugge, S., 2013, In : Cognitive Science. 37, 4, p. 711-730 20 p.

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  • The Probabilities of Conditionals Revisited

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  • Igor Douven
  • Sara Verbrugge

According to what is now commonly referred to as the Equation in the literature on indicative conditionals, the probability of any indicative conditional equals the probability of its consequent of the conditional given the antecedent of the conditional. Philosophers widely agree in their assessment that the triviality arguments of Lewis and others have conclusively shown the Equation to be tenable only at the expense of the view that indicative conditionals express propositions. This study challenges the correctness of that assessment by presenting data that cast doubt on an assumption underlying all triviality arguments.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)711-730
Number of pages20
JournalCognitive Science
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - 2013


  • Conditionals, Probability, Triviality arguments, Semantics, MENTAL MODELS, INFERENCE, CAUSAL, IF

ID: 5860688