Publication

The future of smoking-attributable mortality: The case of England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands

Stoeldraijer, L., Bonneux, L., van Duin, C., van Wissen, L. & Janssen, F., Feb-2015, In : Addiction. 110, 2, p. 336-345 10 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Copy link to clipboard

Documents

  • The future of smoking-attributable mortality The case of England & Wales

    Final publisher's version, 908 KB, PDF document

DOI

AIMS: We formally estimate future smoking-attributable mortality up to 2050 for the total national populations of England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, providing an update and extension of the descriptive smoking-epidemic model.

METHODS: We used smoking prevalence and population-level lung cancer mortality data for England & Wales, Denmark and the Netherlands, covering the period 1950-2009. To estimate the future smoking-attributable mortality fraction (SAF) we: (i) project lung cancer mortality by extrapolating age-period-cohort trends, using the observed convergence of smoking prevalence and similarities in past lung cancer mortality between men and women as input; and (ii) add other causes of death attributable to smoking by applying a simplified version of the indirect Peto-Lopez method to the projected lung cancer mortality.

FINDINGS: The SAF for men in 2009 was 19% (44 872 deaths) in England & Wales, 22% (5861 deaths) in Denmark and 25% (16 385 deaths) in the Netherlands. In our projections, these fractions decline to 6, 12 and 14%, respectively, in 2050. The SAF for women peaked at 14% (38 883 deaths) in 2008 in England & Wales, and is expected to peak in 2028 in Denmark (22%) and in 2033 in the Netherlands (23%). By 2050, a decline to 9, 17 and 19%, respectively, is foreseen. Different indirect estimation methods of the SAF in 2050 yield a range of 1-8% (England & Wales), 8-13% (Denmark) and 11-16% (the Netherlands) for men, and 7-16, 12-26 and 13-31% for women.

CONCLUSIONS: From northern European data we project that smoking-attributable mortality will remain important for the future, especially for women. Whereas substantial differences between countries remain, the age-specific evolution of smoking-attributable mortality remains similar across countries and between sexes.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)336-345
Number of pages10
JournalAddiction
Volume110
Issue number2
Early online date26-Nov-2014
Publication statusPublished - Feb-2015

    Keywords

  • smoking-attributable mortality, smoking-epidemic, Age-period-cohort, Europe, lung cancer mortality, Peto-Lopez method, projection

View graph of relations

ID: 15610323