Publication

Sovereign debt defaults and currency crises in Latin America

Boonman, T. M., 2015, [Groningen]: University of Groningen, SOM research school. 256 p.

Research output: ThesisThesis fully internal (DIV)Academic

APA

Boonman, T. M. (2015). Sovereign debt defaults and currency crises in Latin America. [Groningen]: University of Groningen, SOM research school.

Author

Boonman, Tjeerd Menno. / Sovereign debt defaults and currency crises in Latin America. [Groningen] : University of Groningen, SOM research school, 2015. 256 p.

Harvard

Boonman, TM 2015, 'Sovereign debt defaults and currency crises in Latin America', Doctor of Philosophy, University of Groningen, [Groningen].

Standard

Sovereign debt defaults and currency crises in Latin America. / Boonman, Tjeerd Menno.

[Groningen] : University of Groningen, SOM research school, 2015. 256 p.

Research output: ThesisThesis fully internal (DIV)Academic

Vancouver

Boonman TM. Sovereign debt defaults and currency crises in Latin America. [Groningen]: University of Groningen, SOM research school, 2015. 256 p.


BibTeX

@phdthesis{3af0f4e48e5740fe88d00d33c6a46218,
title = "Sovereign debt defaults and currency crises in Latin America",
abstract = "Since their independence in the early 19th century the economic history of Latin American countries is intertwined with financial crises. This thesis examines two types of financial crises, currency crises and sovereign debt crises, for four Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. We develop a model to examine whether the currency crises in the 2008-2009 period could have been predicted based on earlier currency crises. We find that currency crises since 1990 in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico are related to the situation in the banking sector, the debt position, commodity prices and institutional conditions. Our model is able to predict the currency crises in the period 2008-2009 for Argentina and Brazil, but not for Mexico.Furthermore, we analyze sovereign debt crises since 1870 in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Our focus on a relatively homogenous group of countries over a long time span is consistent with the idea of recurring crises. We develop an index that reflects difficulties of sovereign governments with debt obligations. The index is composed of government debt, the interest rate and the current account. With this index, we can analyze debt crises better, for example by examining the relationship with the business cycle. We also investigate the impact of sovereign debt crises on GDP growth. This impact is relatively shortlived, but the cost in terms of lost economic output is high. However, there are major differences. We find that deep crises are associated with high commodity prices, high economic growth and high government expenditures in the years before the crisis.",
author = "Boonman, {Tjeerd Menno}",
year = "2015",
language = "English",
isbn = "978-90-367-8373-6",
publisher = "University of Groningen, SOM research school",
school = "University of Groningen",

}

RIS

TY - THES

T1 - Sovereign debt defaults and currency crises in Latin America

AU - Boonman, Tjeerd Menno

PY - 2015

Y1 - 2015

N2 - Since their independence in the early 19th century the economic history of Latin American countries is intertwined with financial crises. This thesis examines two types of financial crises, currency crises and sovereign debt crises, for four Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. We develop a model to examine whether the currency crises in the 2008-2009 period could have been predicted based on earlier currency crises. We find that currency crises since 1990 in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico are related to the situation in the banking sector, the debt position, commodity prices and institutional conditions. Our model is able to predict the currency crises in the period 2008-2009 for Argentina and Brazil, but not for Mexico.Furthermore, we analyze sovereign debt crises since 1870 in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Our focus on a relatively homogenous group of countries over a long time span is consistent with the idea of recurring crises. We develop an index that reflects difficulties of sovereign governments with debt obligations. The index is composed of government debt, the interest rate and the current account. With this index, we can analyze debt crises better, for example by examining the relationship with the business cycle. We also investigate the impact of sovereign debt crises on GDP growth. This impact is relatively shortlived, but the cost in terms of lost economic output is high. However, there are major differences. We find that deep crises are associated with high commodity prices, high economic growth and high government expenditures in the years before the crisis.

AB - Since their independence in the early 19th century the economic history of Latin American countries is intertwined with financial crises. This thesis examines two types of financial crises, currency crises and sovereign debt crises, for four Latin American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. We develop a model to examine whether the currency crises in the 2008-2009 period could have been predicted based on earlier currency crises. We find that currency crises since 1990 in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico are related to the situation in the banking sector, the debt position, commodity prices and institutional conditions. Our model is able to predict the currency crises in the period 2008-2009 for Argentina and Brazil, but not for Mexico.Furthermore, we analyze sovereign debt crises since 1870 in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico. Our focus on a relatively homogenous group of countries over a long time span is consistent with the idea of recurring crises. We develop an index that reflects difficulties of sovereign governments with debt obligations. The index is composed of government debt, the interest rate and the current account. With this index, we can analyze debt crises better, for example by examining the relationship with the business cycle. We also investigate the impact of sovereign debt crises on GDP growth. This impact is relatively shortlived, but the cost in terms of lost economic output is high. However, there are major differences. We find that deep crises are associated with high commodity prices, high economic growth and high government expenditures in the years before the crisis.

M3 - Thesis fully internal (DIV)

SN - 978-90-367-8373-6

PB - University of Groningen, SOM research school

CY - [Groningen]

ER -

ID: 26539994