Publication

Probability Elicitation to Inform Early Health Economic Evaluations of New Medical Technologies: A Case Study in Heart Failure Disease Management

Cao, Q., Postmus, D., Hillege, H. L. & Buskens, E., Jun-2013, In : Value in Health. 16, 4, p. 529-535 7 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

APA

Cao, Q., Postmus, D., Hillege, H. L., & Buskens, E. (2013). Probability Elicitation to Inform Early Health Economic Evaluations of New Medical Technologies: A Case Study in Heart Failure Disease Management. Value in Health, 16(4), 529-535. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2013.02.008

Author

Cao, Qi ; Postmus, Douwe ; Hillege, Hans L. ; Buskens, Erik. / Probability Elicitation to Inform Early Health Economic Evaluations of New Medical Technologies : A Case Study in Heart Failure Disease Management. In: Value in Health. 2013 ; Vol. 16, No. 4. pp. 529-535.

Harvard

Cao, Q, Postmus, D, Hillege, HL & Buskens, E 2013, 'Probability Elicitation to Inform Early Health Economic Evaluations of New Medical Technologies: A Case Study in Heart Failure Disease Management', Value in Health, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 529-535. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2013.02.008

Standard

Probability Elicitation to Inform Early Health Economic Evaluations of New Medical Technologies : A Case Study in Heart Failure Disease Management. / Cao, Qi; Postmus, Douwe; Hillege, Hans L.; Buskens, Erik.

In: Value in Health, Vol. 16, No. 4, 06.2013, p. 529-535.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Vancouver

Cao Q, Postmus D, Hillege HL, Buskens E. Probability Elicitation to Inform Early Health Economic Evaluations of New Medical Technologies: A Case Study in Heart Failure Disease Management. Value in Health. 2013 Jun;16(4):529-535. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2013.02.008


BibTeX

@article{2aa77fe8cbf94a748676fea220fcf72e,
title = "Probability Elicitation to Inform Early Health Economic Evaluations of New Medical Technologies: A Case Study in Heart Failure Disease Management",
abstract = "Objectives: Early estimates of the commercial headroom available to a new medical device can assist producers of health technology in making appropriate product investment decisions. The purpose of this study was to illustrate how this quantity can be captured probabilistically by combining probability elicitation with early health economic modeling. The technology considered was a novel point-of-care testing device in heart failure disease management. Methods: First, we developed a continuous-time Markov model to represent the patients' disease progression under the current care setting. Next, we identified the model parameters that are likely to change after the introduction of the new device and interviewed three cardiologists to capture the probability distributions of these parameters. Finally, we obtained the probability distribution of the commercial headroom available per measurement by propagating the uncertainty in the model inputs to uncertainty in modeled outcomes. Results: For a willingness-to-pay value of (sic)10,000 per life-year, the median headroom available per measurement was (sic)1.64 (interquartile range (sic)0.05-(sic)3.16) when the measurement frequency was assumed to be daily. In the subsequently conducted sensitivity analysis, this median value increased to a maximum of (sic)57.70 for different combinations of the willingness-to-pay threshold and the measurement frequency. Conclusions: Probability elicitation can successfully be combined with early health economic modeling to obtain the probability distribution of the headroom available to a new medical technology. Subsequently feeding this distribution into a product investment evaluation method enables stakeholders to make more informed decisions regarding to which markets a currently available product prototype should be targeted.",
keywords = "early health economic modeling, headroom analysis, heart failure disease management, probability elicitation, COST-EFFECTIVENESS, MULTISTATE MODELS, HOSPITALIZATION, DISTRIBUTIONS, UNCERTAINTY, PROGRAMS, THERAPY, DEVICES, TRIAL",
author = "Qi Cao and Douwe Postmus and Hillege, {Hans L.} and Erik Buskens",
year = "2013",
month = jun,
doi = "10.1016/j.jval.2013.02.008",
language = "English",
volume = "16",
pages = "529--535",
journal = "Value in Health",
issn = "1098-3015",
publisher = "ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC",
number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Probability Elicitation to Inform Early Health Economic Evaluations of New Medical Technologies

T2 - A Case Study in Heart Failure Disease Management

AU - Cao, Qi

AU - Postmus, Douwe

AU - Hillege, Hans L.

AU - Buskens, Erik

PY - 2013/6

Y1 - 2013/6

N2 - Objectives: Early estimates of the commercial headroom available to a new medical device can assist producers of health technology in making appropriate product investment decisions. The purpose of this study was to illustrate how this quantity can be captured probabilistically by combining probability elicitation with early health economic modeling. The technology considered was a novel point-of-care testing device in heart failure disease management. Methods: First, we developed a continuous-time Markov model to represent the patients' disease progression under the current care setting. Next, we identified the model parameters that are likely to change after the introduction of the new device and interviewed three cardiologists to capture the probability distributions of these parameters. Finally, we obtained the probability distribution of the commercial headroom available per measurement by propagating the uncertainty in the model inputs to uncertainty in modeled outcomes. Results: For a willingness-to-pay value of (sic)10,000 per life-year, the median headroom available per measurement was (sic)1.64 (interquartile range (sic)0.05-(sic)3.16) when the measurement frequency was assumed to be daily. In the subsequently conducted sensitivity analysis, this median value increased to a maximum of (sic)57.70 for different combinations of the willingness-to-pay threshold and the measurement frequency. Conclusions: Probability elicitation can successfully be combined with early health economic modeling to obtain the probability distribution of the headroom available to a new medical technology. Subsequently feeding this distribution into a product investment evaluation method enables stakeholders to make more informed decisions regarding to which markets a currently available product prototype should be targeted.

AB - Objectives: Early estimates of the commercial headroom available to a new medical device can assist producers of health technology in making appropriate product investment decisions. The purpose of this study was to illustrate how this quantity can be captured probabilistically by combining probability elicitation with early health economic modeling. The technology considered was a novel point-of-care testing device in heart failure disease management. Methods: First, we developed a continuous-time Markov model to represent the patients' disease progression under the current care setting. Next, we identified the model parameters that are likely to change after the introduction of the new device and interviewed three cardiologists to capture the probability distributions of these parameters. Finally, we obtained the probability distribution of the commercial headroom available per measurement by propagating the uncertainty in the model inputs to uncertainty in modeled outcomes. Results: For a willingness-to-pay value of (sic)10,000 per life-year, the median headroom available per measurement was (sic)1.64 (interquartile range (sic)0.05-(sic)3.16) when the measurement frequency was assumed to be daily. In the subsequently conducted sensitivity analysis, this median value increased to a maximum of (sic)57.70 for different combinations of the willingness-to-pay threshold and the measurement frequency. Conclusions: Probability elicitation can successfully be combined with early health economic modeling to obtain the probability distribution of the headroom available to a new medical technology. Subsequently feeding this distribution into a product investment evaluation method enables stakeholders to make more informed decisions regarding to which markets a currently available product prototype should be targeted.

KW - early health economic modeling

KW - headroom analysis

KW - heart failure disease management

KW - probability elicitation

KW - COST-EFFECTIVENESS

KW - MULTISTATE MODELS

KW - HOSPITALIZATION

KW - DISTRIBUTIONS

KW - UNCERTAINTY

KW - PROGRAMS

KW - THERAPY

KW - DEVICES

KW - TRIAL

U2 - 10.1016/j.jval.2013.02.008

DO - 10.1016/j.jval.2013.02.008

M3 - Article

VL - 16

SP - 529

EP - 535

JO - Value in Health

JF - Value in Health

SN - 1098-3015

IS - 4

ER -

ID: 5906825