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Modelling the impact of extended vaccination strategies on the epidemiology of pertussis

Rozenbaum, M. H., de Vries, R., Le, H. H. & Postma, M. J., 1-Aug-2012, In : Epidemiology And Infection. 140, 8, p. 1503-1514 12 p.

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  • Modelling the impact of extended vaccination strategies on the epidemiology of pertussis

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DOI

The aim of this study was to investigate the optimal pertussis booster vaccination strategy for The Netherlands. A realistic age-structured deterministic model was designed. Assuming a steady-state situation and correcting for underreporting, the model was calibrated using notification data from the period 1996-2000. Several sensitivity analyses were performed to explore the impact of different assumptions for parameters surrounded by uncertainty (e.g. duration of protection after natural infection, underreporting factors, and transmission probabilities). The optimal age of an additional booster dose is in the range of 10-15 years, and implementation of this booster dose will reduce both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections, although the incidence of symptomatic infections in older age groups will increase. The impact of the different assumptions used in the model was in general limited. We conclude that over a wide range of assumptions, an additional booster dose can reduce the incidence of pertussis in the population. © 2011 Cambridge University Press.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1503-1514
Number of pages12
JournalEpidemiology And Infection
Volume140
Issue number8
Publication statusPublished - 1-Aug-2012

    Keywords

  • Infectious disease control, mathematical modelling, pertussis (whooping cough), public health, vaccine policy development, UNITED-STATES, COMPUTER-SIMULATIONS, BORDETELLA-PERTUSSIS, SOCIAL CONTACTS, DISEASE BURDEN, YOUNG INFANTS, ADOLESCENTS, NETHERLANDS, AGE, EFFICACY

ID: 5623684