Publication

Including the smoking epidemic in internationally coherent mortality projections

Janssen, F., van Wissen, L. J. G. & Kunst, A. E., Aug-2013, In : Demography. 50, 4, p. 1341-1362 22 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

APA

Janssen, F., van Wissen, L. J. G., & Kunst, A. E. (2013). Including the smoking epidemic in internationally coherent mortality projections. Demography, 50(4), 1341-1362. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-012-0185-x

Author

Janssen, Fanny ; van Wissen, Leo J. G. ; Kunst, Anton E. / Including the smoking epidemic in internationally coherent mortality projections. In: Demography. 2013 ; Vol. 50, No. 4. pp. 1341-1362.

Harvard

Janssen, F, van Wissen, LJG & Kunst, AE 2013, 'Including the smoking epidemic in internationally coherent mortality projections', Demography, vol. 50, no. 4, pp. 1341-1362. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-012-0185-x

Standard

Including the smoking epidemic in internationally coherent mortality projections. / Janssen, Fanny; van Wissen, Leo J. G.; Kunst, Anton E.

In: Demography, Vol. 50, No. 4, 08.2013, p. 1341-1362.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Vancouver

Janssen F, van Wissen LJG, Kunst AE. Including the smoking epidemic in internationally coherent mortality projections. Demography. 2013 Aug;50(4):1341-1362. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-012-0185-x


BibTeX

@article{2356520d682f4564958340b3fd265f1f,
title = "Including the smoking epidemic in internationally coherent mortality projections",
abstract = "We present a new mortality projection methodology that distinguishes smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality and takes into account mortality trends of the opposite sex and in other countries. We evaluate to what extent future projections of life expectancy at birth (e (0)) for the Netherlands up to 2040 are affected by the application of these components. All-cause mortality and non-smoking-related mortality for the years 1970-2006 are projected by the Lee-Carter and Li-Lee methodologies. Smoking-related mortality is projected according to assumptions on future smoking-attributable mortality. Projecting all-cause mortality in the Netherlands, using the Lee-Carter model, leads to high gains in e (0) (4.1 for males; 4.4 for females) and divergence between the sexes. Coherent projections, which include the mortality experience of the other 21 sex- and country-specific populations, result in much higher gains for males (6.4) and females (5.7), and convergence. The separate projection of smoking and non-smoking-related mortality produces a steady increase in e (0) for males (4.8) and a nonlinear trend for females, with lower gains in e (0) in the short run, resulting in temporary sex convergence. The latter effect is also found in coherent projections. Our methodology provides more robust projections, especially thanks to the distinction between smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality.",
keywords = "Life expectancy, Projection, Smoking, Europe, Li-Lee methodology, 7 EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, OLD-AGE MORTALITY, STOCHASTIC POPULATION FORECASTS, UNITED-STATES MORTALITY, HIGH-INCOME NATIONS, LEE-CARTER METHOD, DEVELOPED-COUNTRIES, SEX-DIFFERENCES, LIFE EXPECTANCY, FUTURE-TRENDS",
author = "Fanny Janssen and {van Wissen}, {Leo J. G.} and Kunst, {Anton E.}",
year = "2013",
month = "8",
doi = "10.1007/s13524-012-0185-x",
language = "English",
volume = "50",
pages = "1341--1362",
journal = "Demography",
issn = "0070-3370",
publisher = "SPRINGER",
number = "4",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Including the smoking epidemic in internationally coherent mortality projections

AU - Janssen, Fanny

AU - van Wissen, Leo J. G.

AU - Kunst, Anton E.

PY - 2013/8

Y1 - 2013/8

N2 - We present a new mortality projection methodology that distinguishes smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality and takes into account mortality trends of the opposite sex and in other countries. We evaluate to what extent future projections of life expectancy at birth (e (0)) for the Netherlands up to 2040 are affected by the application of these components. All-cause mortality and non-smoking-related mortality for the years 1970-2006 are projected by the Lee-Carter and Li-Lee methodologies. Smoking-related mortality is projected according to assumptions on future smoking-attributable mortality. Projecting all-cause mortality in the Netherlands, using the Lee-Carter model, leads to high gains in e (0) (4.1 for males; 4.4 for females) and divergence between the sexes. Coherent projections, which include the mortality experience of the other 21 sex- and country-specific populations, result in much higher gains for males (6.4) and females (5.7), and convergence. The separate projection of smoking and non-smoking-related mortality produces a steady increase in e (0) for males (4.8) and a nonlinear trend for females, with lower gains in e (0) in the short run, resulting in temporary sex convergence. The latter effect is also found in coherent projections. Our methodology provides more robust projections, especially thanks to the distinction between smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality.

AB - We present a new mortality projection methodology that distinguishes smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality and takes into account mortality trends of the opposite sex and in other countries. We evaluate to what extent future projections of life expectancy at birth (e (0)) for the Netherlands up to 2040 are affected by the application of these components. All-cause mortality and non-smoking-related mortality for the years 1970-2006 are projected by the Lee-Carter and Li-Lee methodologies. Smoking-related mortality is projected according to assumptions on future smoking-attributable mortality. Projecting all-cause mortality in the Netherlands, using the Lee-Carter model, leads to high gains in e (0) (4.1 for males; 4.4 for females) and divergence between the sexes. Coherent projections, which include the mortality experience of the other 21 sex- and country-specific populations, result in much higher gains for males (6.4) and females (5.7), and convergence. The separate projection of smoking and non-smoking-related mortality produces a steady increase in e (0) for males (4.8) and a nonlinear trend for females, with lower gains in e (0) in the short run, resulting in temporary sex convergence. The latter effect is also found in coherent projections. Our methodology provides more robust projections, especially thanks to the distinction between smoking- and non-smoking-related mortality.

KW - Life expectancy

KW - Projection

KW - Smoking

KW - Europe

KW - Li-Lee methodology

KW - 7 EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

KW - OLD-AGE MORTALITY

KW - STOCHASTIC POPULATION FORECASTS

KW - UNITED-STATES MORTALITY

KW - HIGH-INCOME NATIONS

KW - LEE-CARTER METHOD

KW - DEVELOPED-COUNTRIES

KW - SEX-DIFFERENCES

KW - LIFE EXPECTANCY

KW - FUTURE-TRENDS

U2 - 10.1007/s13524-012-0185-x

DO - 10.1007/s13524-012-0185-x

M3 - Article

VL - 50

SP - 1341

EP - 1362

JO - Demography

JF - Demography

SN - 0070-3370

IS - 4

ER -

ID: 5916410