Publication

Future Storm Frequency and Runoff in Small US Mid-Atlantic Watersheds Evaluated Using Capture Depth

Khan, L. M. P., Moglen, G. E., Hubacek, K. & Brubaker, K. L., 1-Aug-2019, In : Journal of Sustainable Water in the Built Environment. 5, 3, 13 p., 05019001.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

APA

Khan, L. M. P., Moglen, G. E., Hubacek, K., & Brubaker, K. L. (2019). Future Storm Frequency and Runoff in Small US Mid-Atlantic Watersheds Evaluated Using Capture Depth. Journal of Sustainable Water in the Built Environment, 5(3), [05019001]. https://doi.org/10.1061/JSWBAY.0000879

Author

Khan, L. M. P. ; Moglen, G. E. ; Hubacek, K. ; Brubaker, K. L. / Future Storm Frequency and Runoff in Small US Mid-Atlantic Watersheds Evaluated Using Capture Depth. In: Journal of Sustainable Water in the Built Environment. 2019 ; Vol. 5, No. 3.

Harvard

Khan, LMP, Moglen, GE, Hubacek, K & Brubaker, KL 2019, 'Future Storm Frequency and Runoff in Small US Mid-Atlantic Watersheds Evaluated Using Capture Depth' Journal of Sustainable Water in the Built Environment, vol. 5, no. 3, 05019001. https://doi.org/10.1061/JSWBAY.0000879

Standard

Future Storm Frequency and Runoff in Small US Mid-Atlantic Watersheds Evaluated Using Capture Depth. / Khan, L. M. P.; Moglen, G. E.; Hubacek, K.; Brubaker, K. L.

In: Journal of Sustainable Water in the Built Environment, Vol. 5, No. 3, 05019001, 01.08.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Vancouver

Khan LMP, Moglen GE, Hubacek K, Brubaker KL. Future Storm Frequency and Runoff in Small US Mid-Atlantic Watersheds Evaluated Using Capture Depth. Journal of Sustainable Water in the Built Environment. 2019 Aug 1;5(3). 05019001. https://doi.org/10.1061/JSWBAY.0000879


BibTeX

@article{2d29c95bc3c14650b7ca552a83f1888b,
title = "Future Storm Frequency and Runoff in Small US Mid-Atlantic Watersheds Evaluated Using Capture Depth",
abstract = "Due to climate change and urbanization, runoff events will become more frequent, resulting in increased potential for flooding and soil erosion. To understand the hydrologic impacts of various climate change and urbanization scenarios in the state of Maryland, this study assesses the frequency, intensity, and associated runoff conditions of index storm events as hydrologic indicators for stormwater management. The analyzed events are defined as capture depth, that is, the depth of event precipitation that accounts for a specified fraction (85{\%}, 90{\%}, 95{\%}, and 99{\%}) of total rainfall when all event depths are ranked and cumulated. Four representative watersheds (area of approximately 3 km2) are analyzed across four populous counties in Maryland. A statistically significant increasing trend in the frequency of these events is observed during the historical period 1981-2015. For the future period 2016-2035, an ensemble of bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models shows an increase of 1{\%}-5{\%} in mean precipitation. Two different downscaling methods are applied to generate time series of future event precipitation for the study watersheds from the CMIP models: change factor (CF) and multivariate adaptive constructed analogs (MACA). Modest increases in the frequency of events in the 85{\%}-99{\%} range of capture depth are observed across all counties. Runoff associated with events greater than the 85{\%} capture depth is computed using the Natural Resources Conservation Service curve number method. Both the CF and MACA projected future precipitation time series are used to calculate the response to 24-h precipitation under two scenarios: (1) climate change, and (2) climate change plus urbanization. Runoff frequency distribution modeled under both scenarios indicate that climate change is more influential than urbanization in this region. In addition, storage volumes for enhanced bioretention using CF-based future climate projections show that both climate change and urbanization have similar potential to affect stormwater management costs.",
keywords = "EARTH SYSTEM MODEL, CLIMATE-CHANGE, RIVER THAMES, PRECIPITATION, IMPACTS, IMPERVIOUSNESS, HYDROLOGY, INFRASTRUCTURE, TEMPERATURE, EXTREMES",
author = "Khan, {L. M. P.} and Moglen, {G. E.} and K. Hubacek and Brubaker, {K. L.}",
year = "2019",
month = "8",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1061/JSWBAY.0000879",
language = "English",
volume = "5",
journal = "Journal of Sustainable Water in the Built Environment",
issn = "2379-6111",
publisher = "ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS",
number = "3",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Future Storm Frequency and Runoff in Small US Mid-Atlantic Watersheds Evaluated Using Capture Depth

AU - Khan, L. M. P.

AU - Moglen, G. E.

AU - Hubacek, K.

AU - Brubaker, K. L.

PY - 2019/8/1

Y1 - 2019/8/1

N2 - Due to climate change and urbanization, runoff events will become more frequent, resulting in increased potential for flooding and soil erosion. To understand the hydrologic impacts of various climate change and urbanization scenarios in the state of Maryland, this study assesses the frequency, intensity, and associated runoff conditions of index storm events as hydrologic indicators for stormwater management. The analyzed events are defined as capture depth, that is, the depth of event precipitation that accounts for a specified fraction (85%, 90%, 95%, and 99%) of total rainfall when all event depths are ranked and cumulated. Four representative watersheds (area of approximately 3 km2) are analyzed across four populous counties in Maryland. A statistically significant increasing trend in the frequency of these events is observed during the historical period 1981-2015. For the future period 2016-2035, an ensemble of bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models shows an increase of 1%-5% in mean precipitation. Two different downscaling methods are applied to generate time series of future event precipitation for the study watersheds from the CMIP models: change factor (CF) and multivariate adaptive constructed analogs (MACA). Modest increases in the frequency of events in the 85%-99% range of capture depth are observed across all counties. Runoff associated with events greater than the 85% capture depth is computed using the Natural Resources Conservation Service curve number method. Both the CF and MACA projected future precipitation time series are used to calculate the response to 24-h precipitation under two scenarios: (1) climate change, and (2) climate change plus urbanization. Runoff frequency distribution modeled under both scenarios indicate that climate change is more influential than urbanization in this region. In addition, storage volumes for enhanced bioretention using CF-based future climate projections show that both climate change and urbanization have similar potential to affect stormwater management costs.

AB - Due to climate change and urbanization, runoff events will become more frequent, resulting in increased potential for flooding and soil erosion. To understand the hydrologic impacts of various climate change and urbanization scenarios in the state of Maryland, this study assesses the frequency, intensity, and associated runoff conditions of index storm events as hydrologic indicators for stormwater management. The analyzed events are defined as capture depth, that is, the depth of event precipitation that accounts for a specified fraction (85%, 90%, 95%, and 99%) of total rainfall when all event depths are ranked and cumulated. Four representative watersheds (area of approximately 3 km2) are analyzed across four populous counties in Maryland. A statistically significant increasing trend in the frequency of these events is observed during the historical period 1981-2015. For the future period 2016-2035, an ensemble of bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models shows an increase of 1%-5% in mean precipitation. Two different downscaling methods are applied to generate time series of future event precipitation for the study watersheds from the CMIP models: change factor (CF) and multivariate adaptive constructed analogs (MACA). Modest increases in the frequency of events in the 85%-99% range of capture depth are observed across all counties. Runoff associated with events greater than the 85% capture depth is computed using the Natural Resources Conservation Service curve number method. Both the CF and MACA projected future precipitation time series are used to calculate the response to 24-h precipitation under two scenarios: (1) climate change, and (2) climate change plus urbanization. Runoff frequency distribution modeled under both scenarios indicate that climate change is more influential than urbanization in this region. In addition, storage volumes for enhanced bioretention using CF-based future climate projections show that both climate change and urbanization have similar potential to affect stormwater management costs.

KW - EARTH SYSTEM MODEL

KW - CLIMATE-CHANGE

KW - RIVER THAMES

KW - PRECIPITATION

KW - IMPACTS

KW - IMPERVIOUSNESS

KW - HYDROLOGY

KW - INFRASTRUCTURE

KW - TEMPERATURE

KW - EXTREMES

UR - http://www.mendeley.com/research/future-storm-frequency-runoff-small-midatlantic-watersheds-evaluated-using-capture-depth

U2 - 10.1061/JSWBAY.0000879

DO - 10.1061/JSWBAY.0000879

M3 - Article

VL - 5

JO - Journal of Sustainable Water in the Built Environment

JF - Journal of Sustainable Water in the Built Environment

SN - 2379-6111

IS - 3

M1 - 05019001

ER -

ID: 91759136