Publication

Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

GBD 2016 Lower Respiratory Infecti, Troeger, C., Blacker, B. F., Khalil, I. A., Rao, P. C., Cao, S., Zimsen, S. R. M., Albertson, S., Stanaway, J. D., Deshpande, A., Farag, T., Forouzanfar, M. H., Abebe, Z., Adetifa, I. M. O., Adhikari, T. B., Akibu, M., Al Lami, F. H., Al-Eyadhy, A., Alvis-Guzman, N., Amare, A. T., Amoako, Y. A., Antonio, C. A. T., Aremu, O., Asfaw, E. T., Asgedom, S. W., Atey, T. M., Attia, E. F., Avokpaho, E. F. G. A., Ayele, H. T., Ayuk, T. B., Balakrishnan, K., Barac, A., Bassat, Q., Behzadifar, M., Behzadifar, M., Bhaumik, S., Bhutta, Z. A., Bijani, A., Brauer, M., Brown, A., Camargos, P. A. M., Castaneda-Orjuela, C. A., Colombara, D., Conti, S., Dadi, A. F., Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Huyen Phuc Do, Dubljanin, E., Edessa, D. & Postma, M. J., Nov-2018, In : Lancet Infectious Diseases. 18, 11, p. 1191-1210 20 p.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

APA

GBD 2016 Lower Respiratory Infecti, Troeger, C., Blacker, B. F., Khalil, I. A., Rao, P. C., Cao, S., Zimsen, S. R. M., Albertson, S., Stanaway, J. D., Deshpande, A., Farag, T., Forouzanfar, M. H., Abebe, Z., Adetifa, I. M. O., Adhikari, T. B., Akibu, M., Al Lami, F. H., Al-Eyadhy, A., Alvis-Guzman, N., ... Postma, M. J. (2018). Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet Infectious Diseases, 18(11), 1191-1210. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30310-4

Author

GBD 2016 Lower Respiratory Infecti ; Troeger, Christopher ; Blacker, Brigette F. ; Khalil, Ibrahim A. ; Rao, Puja C. ; Cao, Shujin ; Zimsen, Stephanie R. M. ; Albertson, Sam ; Stanaway, Jeffrey D. ; Deshpande, Aniruddha ; Farag, Tamer ; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H. ; Abebe, Zegeye ; Adetifa, Ifedayo Morayo O. ; Adhikari, Tara Ballav ; Akibu, Mohammed ; Al Lami, Faris Hasan ; Al-Eyadhy, Ayman ; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson ; Amare, Azmeraw T. ; Amoako, Yaw Ampem ; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T. ; Aremu, Olatunde ; Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay ; Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal ; Atey, Tesfay Mehari ; Attia, Engi Farouk ; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G. Arthur ; Ayele, Henok Tadesse ; Ayuk, Tambe Betrand ; Balakrishnan, Kalpana ; Barac, Aleksandra ; Bassat, Quique ; Behzadifar, Masoud ; Behzadifar, Meysam ; Bhaumik, Soumyadeep ; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. ; Bijani, Ali ; Brauer, Michael ; Brown, Alexandria ; Camargos, Paulo A. M. ; Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A. ; Colombara, Danny ; Conti, Sara ; Dadi, Abel Fekadu ; Dandona, Lalit ; Dandona, Rakhi ; Huyen Phuc Do ; Dubljanin, Eleonora ; Edessa, Dumessa ; Postma, Maarten J. / Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. In: Lancet Infectious Diseases. 2018 ; Vol. 18, No. 11. pp. 1191-1210.

Harvard

GBD 2016 Lower Respiratory Infecti, Troeger, C, Blacker, BF, Khalil, IA, Rao, PC, Cao, S, Zimsen, SRM, Albertson, S, Stanaway, JD, Deshpande, A, Farag, T, Forouzanfar, MH, Abebe, Z, Adetifa, IMO, Adhikari, TB, Akibu, M, Al Lami, FH, Al-Eyadhy, A, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, AT, Amoako, YA, Antonio, CAT, Aremu, O, Asfaw, ET, Asgedom, SW, Atey, TM, Attia, EF, Avokpaho, EFGA, Ayele, HT, Ayuk, TB, Balakrishnan, K, Barac, A, Bassat, Q, Behzadifar, M, Behzadifar, M, Bhaumik, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Brauer, M, Brown, A, Camargos, PAM, Castaneda-Orjuela, CA, Colombara, D, Conti, S, Dadi, AF, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Huyen Phuc Do, Dubljanin, E, Edessa, D & Postma, MJ 2018, 'Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016', Lancet Infectious Diseases, vol. 18, no. 11, pp. 1191-1210. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30310-4

Standard

Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. / GBD 2016 Lower Respiratory Infecti; Troeger, Christopher; Blacker, Brigette F.; Khalil, Ibrahim A.; Rao, Puja C.; Cao, Shujin; Zimsen, Stephanie R. M.; Albertson, Sam; Stanaway, Jeffrey D.; Deshpande, Aniruddha; Farag, Tamer; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Abebe, Zegeye; Adetifa, Ifedayo Morayo O.; Adhikari, Tara Ballav; Akibu, Mohammed; Al Lami, Faris Hasan; Al-Eyadhy, Ayman; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Amoako, Yaw Ampem; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.; Aremu, Olatunde; Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay; Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal; Atey, Tesfay Mehari; Attia, Engi Farouk; Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G. Arthur; Ayele, Henok Tadesse; Ayuk, Tambe Betrand; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Barac, Aleksandra; Bassat, Quique; Behzadifar, Masoud; Behzadifar, Meysam; Bhaumik, Soumyadeep; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Bijani, Ali; Brauer, Michael; Brown, Alexandria; Camargos, Paulo A. M.; Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A.; Colombara, Danny; Conti, Sara; Dadi, Abel Fekadu; Dandona, Lalit; Dandona, Rakhi; Huyen Phuc Do; Dubljanin, Eleonora; Edessa, Dumessa; Postma, Maarten J.

In: Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol. 18, No. 11, 11.2018, p. 1191-1210.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Vancouver

GBD 2016 Lower Respiratory Infecti, Troeger C, Blacker BF, Khalil IA, Rao PC, Cao S et al. Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Lancet Infectious Diseases. 2018 Nov;18(11):1191-1210. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30310-4


BibTeX

@article{43e701ba80d843dc8cfa4a9fa4d8b6e1,
title = "Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016",
abstract = "Background Lower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 26 years and shows how the burden of lower respiratory infection has changed in people of all ages.Methods We used three separate modelling strategies for lower respiratory infections in GBD 2016: a Bayesian hierarchical ensemble modelling platform (Cause of Death Ensemble model), which uses vital registration, verbal autopsy data, and surveillance system data to predict mortality due to lower respiratory infections; a compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR), which uses scientific literature, population representative surveys, and healthcare data to predict incidence, prevalence, and mortality; and modelling of counterfactual estimates of the population attributable fraction of lower respiratory infection episodes due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus. We calculated each modelled estimate for each age, sex, year, and location. We modelled the exposure level in a population for a given risk factor using DisMod-MR and a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and assessed the effectiveness of targeted interventions for each risk factor in children younger than 5 years. We also did a decomposition analysis of the change in LRI deaths from 2000-16 using the risk factors associated with LRI in GBD 2016.Findings In 2016, lower respiratory infections caused 652 572 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 586 475-720 612) in children younger than 5 years (under-5s), 1 080 958 deaths (943 749-1 170 638) in adults older than 70 years, and 2 377 697 deaths (2145 584-2 512 809) in people of all ages, worldwide. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the leading cause of lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality globally, contributing to more deaths than all other aetiologies combined in 2016 (1189 937 deaths, 95% UI 690 445-1 770 660). Childhood wasting remains the leading risk factor for lower respiratory infection mortality among children younger than 5 years, responsible for 61.4% of lower respiratory infection deaths in 2016 (95% UI 45.7-69.6). Interventions to improve wasting, household air pollution, ambient particulate matter pollution, and expanded antibiotic use could avert one under-5 death due to lower respiratory infection for every 4000 children treated in the countries with the highest lower respiratory infection burden.Interpretation Our findings show substantial progress in the reduction of lower respiratory infection burden, but this progress has not been equal across locations, has been driven by decreases in several primary risk factors, and might require more effort among elderly adults. By highlighting regions and populations with the highest burden, and the risk factors that could have the greatest effect, funders, policy makers, and programme implementers can more effectively reduce lower respiratory infections among the world's most susceptible populations. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.",
keywords = "RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED-TRIAL, HOUSEHOLD AIR-POLLUTION, CHILDHOOD MALNUTRITION, CHILDREN YOUNGER, STREPTOCOCCUS-PNEUMONIAE, INCOME COUNTRIES, SOLID-FUEL, METAANALYSIS, RISK, INTERVENTION",
author = "{GBD 2016 Lower Respiratory Infecti} and Christopher Troeger and Blacker, {Brigette F.} and Khalil, {Ibrahim A.} and Rao, {Puja C.} and Shujin Cao and Zimsen, {Stephanie R. M.} and Sam Albertson and Stanaway, {Jeffrey D.} and Aniruddha Deshpande and Tamer Farag and Forouzanfar, {Mohammad H.} and Zegeye Abebe and Adetifa, {Ifedayo Morayo O.} and Adhikari, {Tara Ballav} and Mohammed Akibu and {Al Lami}, {Faris Hasan} and Ayman Al-Eyadhy and Nelson Alvis-Guzman and Amare, {Azmeraw T.} and Amoako, {Yaw Ampem} and Antonio, {Carl Abelardo T.} and Olatunde Aremu and Asfaw, {Ephrem Tsegay} and Asgedom, {Solomon Weldegebreal} and Atey, {Tesfay Mehari} and Attia, {Engi Farouk} and Avokpaho, {Euripide Frinel G. Arthur} and Ayele, {Henok Tadesse} and Ayuk, {Tambe Betrand} and Kalpana Balakrishnan and Aleksandra Barac and Quique Bassat and Masoud Behzadifar and Meysam Behzadifar and Soumyadeep Bhaumik and Bhutta, {Zulfiqar A.} and Ali Bijani and Michael Brauer and Alexandria Brown and Camargos, {Paulo A. M.} and Castaneda-Orjuela, {Carlos A.} and Danny Colombara and Sara Conti and Dadi, {Abel Fekadu} and Lalit Dandona and Rakhi Dandona and {Huyen Phuc Do} and Eleonora Dubljanin and Dumessa Edessa and Postma, {Maarten J.}",
note = "Copyright {\textcopyright} 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.",
year = "2018",
month = nov,
doi = "10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30310-4",
language = "English",
volume = "18",
pages = "1191--1210",
journal = "Lancet Infectious Diseases",
issn = "1473-3099",
publisher = "ELSEVIER SCI LTD",
number = "11",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries, 1990-2016

T2 - a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

AU - GBD 2016 Lower Respiratory Infecti

AU - Troeger, Christopher

AU - Blacker, Brigette F.

AU - Khalil, Ibrahim A.

AU - Rao, Puja C.

AU - Cao, Shujin

AU - Zimsen, Stephanie R. M.

AU - Albertson, Sam

AU - Stanaway, Jeffrey D.

AU - Deshpande, Aniruddha

AU - Farag, Tamer

AU - Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.

AU - Abebe, Zegeye

AU - Adetifa, Ifedayo Morayo O.

AU - Adhikari, Tara Ballav

AU - Akibu, Mohammed

AU - Al Lami, Faris Hasan

AU - Al-Eyadhy, Ayman

AU - Alvis-Guzman, Nelson

AU - Amare, Azmeraw T.

AU - Amoako, Yaw Ampem

AU - Antonio, Carl Abelardo T.

AU - Aremu, Olatunde

AU - Asfaw, Ephrem Tsegay

AU - Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal

AU - Atey, Tesfay Mehari

AU - Attia, Engi Farouk

AU - Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G. Arthur

AU - Ayele, Henok Tadesse

AU - Ayuk, Tambe Betrand

AU - Balakrishnan, Kalpana

AU - Barac, Aleksandra

AU - Bassat, Quique

AU - Behzadifar, Masoud

AU - Behzadifar, Meysam

AU - Bhaumik, Soumyadeep

AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.

AU - Bijani, Ali

AU - Brauer, Michael

AU - Brown, Alexandria

AU - Camargos, Paulo A. M.

AU - Castaneda-Orjuela, Carlos A.

AU - Colombara, Danny

AU - Conti, Sara

AU - Dadi, Abel Fekadu

AU - Dandona, Lalit

AU - Dandona, Rakhi

AU - Huyen Phuc Do, null

AU - Dubljanin, Eleonora

AU - Edessa, Dumessa

AU - Postma, Maarten J.

N1 - Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

PY - 2018/11

Y1 - 2018/11

N2 - Background Lower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 26 years and shows how the burden of lower respiratory infection has changed in people of all ages.Methods We used three separate modelling strategies for lower respiratory infections in GBD 2016: a Bayesian hierarchical ensemble modelling platform (Cause of Death Ensemble model), which uses vital registration, verbal autopsy data, and surveillance system data to predict mortality due to lower respiratory infections; a compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR), which uses scientific literature, population representative surveys, and healthcare data to predict incidence, prevalence, and mortality; and modelling of counterfactual estimates of the population attributable fraction of lower respiratory infection episodes due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus. We calculated each modelled estimate for each age, sex, year, and location. We modelled the exposure level in a population for a given risk factor using DisMod-MR and a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and assessed the effectiveness of targeted interventions for each risk factor in children younger than 5 years. We also did a decomposition analysis of the change in LRI deaths from 2000-16 using the risk factors associated with LRI in GBD 2016.Findings In 2016, lower respiratory infections caused 652 572 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 586 475-720 612) in children younger than 5 years (under-5s), 1 080 958 deaths (943 749-1 170 638) in adults older than 70 years, and 2 377 697 deaths (2145 584-2 512 809) in people of all ages, worldwide. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the leading cause of lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality globally, contributing to more deaths than all other aetiologies combined in 2016 (1189 937 deaths, 95% UI 690 445-1 770 660). Childhood wasting remains the leading risk factor for lower respiratory infection mortality among children younger than 5 years, responsible for 61.4% of lower respiratory infection deaths in 2016 (95% UI 45.7-69.6). Interventions to improve wasting, household air pollution, ambient particulate matter pollution, and expanded antibiotic use could avert one under-5 death due to lower respiratory infection for every 4000 children treated in the countries with the highest lower respiratory infection burden.Interpretation Our findings show substantial progress in the reduction of lower respiratory infection burden, but this progress has not been equal across locations, has been driven by decreases in several primary risk factors, and might require more effort among elderly adults. By highlighting regions and populations with the highest burden, and the risk factors that could have the greatest effect, funders, policy makers, and programme implementers can more effectively reduce lower respiratory infections among the world's most susceptible populations. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

AB - Background Lower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 26 years and shows how the burden of lower respiratory infection has changed in people of all ages.Methods We used three separate modelling strategies for lower respiratory infections in GBD 2016: a Bayesian hierarchical ensemble modelling platform (Cause of Death Ensemble model), which uses vital registration, verbal autopsy data, and surveillance system data to predict mortality due to lower respiratory infections; a compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR), which uses scientific literature, population representative surveys, and healthcare data to predict incidence, prevalence, and mortality; and modelling of counterfactual estimates of the population attributable fraction of lower respiratory infection episodes due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus. We calculated each modelled estimate for each age, sex, year, and location. We modelled the exposure level in a population for a given risk factor using DisMod-MR and a spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and assessed the effectiveness of targeted interventions for each risk factor in children younger than 5 years. We also did a decomposition analysis of the change in LRI deaths from 2000-16 using the risk factors associated with LRI in GBD 2016.Findings In 2016, lower respiratory infections caused 652 572 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 586 475-720 612) in children younger than 5 years (under-5s), 1 080 958 deaths (943 749-1 170 638) in adults older than 70 years, and 2 377 697 deaths (2145 584-2 512 809) in people of all ages, worldwide. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the leading cause of lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality globally, contributing to more deaths than all other aetiologies combined in 2016 (1189 937 deaths, 95% UI 690 445-1 770 660). Childhood wasting remains the leading risk factor for lower respiratory infection mortality among children younger than 5 years, responsible for 61.4% of lower respiratory infection deaths in 2016 (95% UI 45.7-69.6). Interventions to improve wasting, household air pollution, ambient particulate matter pollution, and expanded antibiotic use could avert one under-5 death due to lower respiratory infection for every 4000 children treated in the countries with the highest lower respiratory infection burden.Interpretation Our findings show substantial progress in the reduction of lower respiratory infection burden, but this progress has not been equal across locations, has been driven by decreases in several primary risk factors, and might require more effort among elderly adults. By highlighting regions and populations with the highest burden, and the risk factors that could have the greatest effect, funders, policy makers, and programme implementers can more effectively reduce lower respiratory infections among the world's most susceptible populations. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.

KW - RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED-TRIAL

KW - HOUSEHOLD AIR-POLLUTION

KW - CHILDHOOD MALNUTRITION

KW - CHILDREN YOUNGER

KW - STREPTOCOCCUS-PNEUMONIAE

KW - INCOME COUNTRIES

KW - SOLID-FUEL

KW - METAANALYSIS

KW - RISK

KW - INTERVENTION

U2 - 10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30310-4

DO - 10.1016/S1473-3099(18)30310-4

M3 - Article

C2 - 30243584

VL - 18

SP - 1191

EP - 1210

JO - Lancet Infectious Diseases

JF - Lancet Infectious Diseases

SN - 1473-3099

IS - 11

ER -

ID: 65343758