A Puzzle About Stalnaker's Hypothesis

Douven, I. & Dietz, R., Apr-2011, In : Topoi: An International Review of Philosophy. 30, 1, p. 31-37 7 p.

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  • Igor Douven
  • Richard Dietz

According to Stalnaker's Hypothesis, the probability of an indicative conditional, Pr(phi -> psi), equals the probability of the consequent conditional on its antecedent, Pr(phi -> psi). While the hypothesis is generally taken to have been conclusively refuted by Lewis' and others' triviality arguments, its descriptive adequacy has been confirmed in many experimental studies. In this paper, we consider some possible ways of resolving the apparent tension between the analytical and the empirical results relating to Stalnaker's Hypothesis and we argue that none offer a satisfactory resolution.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)31-37
Number of pages7
JournalTopoi: An International Review of Philosophy
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Apr-2011


  • Conditionals, Probability, Stalnaker's Hypothesis, Triviality arguments, CONDITIONAL-PROBABILITY, BELIEVE, CAUSAL

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