Replication Data for: The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-2006: A Dynamic Factor Approach

Ritschl, A. (Creator), Sarferaz, S. (Creator), Uebele, M. (Creator), University of Groningen, 6-May-2015


  • Albrecht Ritschl (Creator)
  • Samad Sarferaz (Creator)
  • Martin Uebele (Creator)
  • London School of Economics and Political Science
  • ETH Zurich


We estimate a Stock/Watson index of economic activity to assess U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867. We replicate the Great Moderation of the 1980s and 1990s and find exceptionally low volatility also in the Golden Age of the 1960s. Postwar moderation relative to pre-1914 occurs under constant but not time-varying factor loadings, suggesting structural change toward more volatile sectors. For comparable series, the U.S. postwar business cycle was as volatile overall as under the Classical Gold Standard, but much less so during the Great Moderation and the Golden Age.
Date made available6-May-2015
PublisherUniversity of Groningen
Geographical coverageUnited States of America
Access to the dataset Open

    Keywords on Datasets

  • Social Sciences, Economics, History, Business Cycle
Related Publications
  1. The US Business Cycle, 1867-2006: A Dynamic Factor Approach

    Ritschl, A., Sarferaz, S. & Uebele, M., Mar-2016, In : Review of Economics and Statistics. 98, 1, p. 159-172 14 p.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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ID: 80498759