Will there be anybody left to tend to the elderly or to keep up our pension schemes in the future? Should we produce more offspring? No, a limited decrease in population in Western countries can be addressed effectively. ‘Governments should definitely not pursue a birth-encouraging policy’, says Clara Mulder, professor of Spatial Demography at the University of Groningen. ‘It would be highly inappropriate to tell developing countries that their population should not grow while, in the meantime, stimulating reproduction in our own countries. We will need to re-arrange society.’

The world’s population is increasing continuously. While in 1900 over 1.5 billion people populated planet earth, the numbers had grown to about 2.5 billion by 1950. Seven billion people currently inhabit the world and this number is expected to reach ten billion by the end of this century. Afterwards, h owever, demo graphers do not expect the world population to grow any more. Mulder: ‘It is always difficult to make long-term predictions. Fertility may rise, there may be epidemics, and so on. However, population levels in Western countries are already declining and many demographers expect the same thing to happen at world level.’

Improved care, fewer babies

The state of the health care system and the average level of education are major factors for growth or shrinkage of the population. The better the health care is, the lower the population growth will be. Prof. Mulder: ‘This may sound odd, but it is not. If the care system is good and the infant mortality rate is low, people will be less concerned about being left unprovided for in their old age and will produce fewer offspring. The fact that a better educated population grows less rapidly is probably partly due to increased knowledge of contraception and family planning. Nevertheless, even in Western countries a large number of unplanned babies are being born – as much as twenty percent in the United States, according to recent studies.’

Condoms in Africa

It is important for people in Africa and Asia to use more contraceptives. Prof. Mulder: ‘Young people in Uganda, for example, often still have a distorted image of condom use. Because condoms offer no protection in one percent of cases, condom use is rejected and young people are advised to postpone sex until after they get married. It does not come as a surprise that this has had no effect whatsoever. However, the people in Uganda still hold on to this principle.’ And yet it would still not be enough even if church and government leaders were to encourage the use of contraceptives, feels Mulder. ‘Basically, the level of education and quality of health care need to improve, which will be far more difficult to achieve.’

Allow a reduction

Frequent warnings about shrinking populations are issued in Western countries. It is claimed that, eventually, it will be impossible to maintain pension schemes and that there will be too few workers. Mulder refutes this. ‘I do not want to pretend that nothing is going wrong. In some European regions the effects are quite severe. Entire areas may become deserted, especially if young people move away.’ Western governments should nevertheless allow a decline, she feels. ‘It would be highly inappropriate to tell developing countries that their population should not grow while, in the meantime, stimulating reproduction in our own countries. We will need to re-arrange society. A shrinkage in population can be addressed effectively if women start to work more, if all of us work longer, and if we allow limited numbers of immigrants into the country.’

Concerns about lifestyle

While Prof. Mulder is reasonably optimistic about the size of the world’s population, she is more concerned about the lifestyle of current and future generations. ‘Governments, including the Dutch government, still devote too little attention to sustainable production methods and sustainable mobility. To put it briefly: non-sustainable behaviour should become costly and sustainable behaviour should be rewarded. Only by reducing our ecological footprint will so many people be able to inhabit earth and yet limit the impact on nature and the environment.’

Curriculum Vitae

Clara Mulder (1962) has been professor of Spatial Demography at the University of Groningen since March 2011. Before that, she was a professor at the University of Amsterdam. Her research focuses on aspects such as housing and home ownership; residential choice and residential mobility; cohabitation and marriage, separation and divorce; family relations; and the connections between housing and demographic behaviour.