Groningen economists predict medal ranking Vancouver: four gold medals for the Netherlands

According to the model of economists Gerard Kuper and Elmer Sterken, the Netherlands are going to win 11 medals at the Olympic Winter Games in Vancouver, four of which gold, four silver and three bronze.

Kuper and Sterken will publish their predictions in the economists’ journal Economisch Statistische Berichten of 22 January 2010.

10th place for the Netherlands

The Netherlands will finish in 10th place in the medal rankings. The battle for the top position in the medal ranking will be fierce. Germany is expected to win the battle with the United States, Russia, Norway and Canada.

The model predictions are based on economic variables such as the income per head of the population, the size of the population, the home advantage and the WC results of the relevant disciplines. Kuper and Sterken have been predicting the medal rankings of Olympic events since 2002.

Kuper: "Predictions are based on results gained in the past and the outcomes deviate from those results depending on positive and negative effects. Our predictions for the entire medal rankings have proved to be better than those of colleagues using comparable models.”

A comparison of predictions and results for the Netherlands at the Winter Games proves that deviations can be large:

2002 Salt Lake City
Prediction: 2 gold, 2 silver, 3 bronze (7), 12e position in the ranking
Result: 3 gold, 5 silver, 0 bronze (8), 9e position in the ranking
2006 Torino
Prediction: 2 gold, 3 silver, 2 bronze (7), 12e position in the ranking
Result: 3 gold, 2 silver, 4 bronze (9), 10e position in the ranking

Note for the press

For more information: Gerard Kuper, tel. 050-363 37 56, g.h.kuper@rug.nl

http://esbonline.sdu.nl/do/welkom (only for subscribers)